Here’s what you need to know about when the first frost is expected.

Every 10 years, the 30-year climate averages get updated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The current 1991-2020 data set has been used for a few years, but early this month, the local weather service updated the median date (date in the middle of the data set) for the first hard frost of the season and spring鈥檚 last hard freeze date.

For D.C., the frost that ends the growing season occurs on or about Nov. 1. This lines up with the first fall freeze date from the previous climate normal (1971-2000) of Oct. 29 to Nov. 5.

In Baltimore, Maryland, the median date for the season鈥檚 first hard frost is also Nov. 1. This hasn鈥檛 changed much from 20 years ago when the date was Oct. 29 to Nov. 5.

The National Weather Service will put out freeze watches and warnings until the first hard freeze occurs, which happens on clear, calm nights with temperatures of 28 degrees or colder. Temperatures that cold end the growing season, even for hearty plants.

There’s a fly in the ointment. If we don鈥檛 see a killing frost by Nov. 15, the weather service will declare the growing season over. This happens by default because all vegetation becomes dormant thanks to lack of sunlight that shuts down the photosynthesis process in plants. Freeze watches and warnings will not be issued after Nov. 15 鈥� even if the temperature drops for the first time of the fall season to 28 degrees or colder.

The median date for the last spring freeze in D.C. and Baltimore is April 11. Typically, after this date, vegetation is in bloom and temperatures at or below 28 degrees would be detrimental to the development for the growing season.

While the D.C. area has chilly temperatures in the forecast on occasion through the next two weeks, the Interstate 95 corridor is not expected to see a killing frost.

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Baltimore-Washington International Airport topped the list with an excess of 3 inches of rain this weekend. Pockets from D.C. to the Allegheny Highlands got the short end of the stick with a half-inch of rain or less. While the grass in spots will green up, keep in mind this drought is far from finished.

This is D.C. region’s 39th driest summer (so far) with just over 6 inches of rain. The District to the Blue Ridge needs 3 inches of rain to get removed from the drought. It’s a much different story from the Shenandoah Valley to the Allegheny Foothills where rainfall deficits of 4 to 6 inches. It means that at least one hurricane will have to track in a sweet spot to help this area fully recover.

Speaking of hurricanes and tropical systems, Hurricane Debby has landed and will produce widespread and beneficial rain. There’s no doubt that the Carolinas will be inundated with flooding as Debby slides toward the Southeast Atlantic coast this week. Its Western flank will bring the D.C. region beneficial rain late this week into the weekend.

Will Debby’s rain be enough to completely eradicate the drought?

Most likely at least the southern suburbs will be drought-free when the Drought Monitor updates on Thursday, Aug. 15.

West of the Blue Ridge is in an extreme drought, perhaps tipping the scale at a level 4 (exceptional) drought when the Drought Monitor updates later this week thanks to the ongoing lack of rain and hot weather. Debby will help, but rain amounts will be lower west of the Blue Ridge, so this zone of real estate will have to wait a bit longer.

Rivers, creeks and streams are running well below average and farmers are reporting significant crop loss, in some cases, a total loss, from this summer’s drought west of D.C. The soil has completely dried out to several inches below the ground west of the District.

A steady light to moderate rain will help the most as downpours will only run right off into the nearby creeks, streams and rivers.

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The strong El Ni帽o winter of 2015-16 was the last time Baltimore reached or exceeded its seasonal snowfall average of 19.3 inches. For both Reagan National and Dulles International, five years ago during the weak El Ni帽o winter of 2018-19 was the last time average snowfall of 14 to 20.2 inches accumulated.

Running out of time to meet the quota this winter, there is one more opportunity this month for snow on the tail end of an early weekend storm (Feb. 23-24) before a major pattern shift to much warmer than average temperatures for the remainder of the month into early March. Even if snow does fall in the D.C. area next weekend, early indications as of Feb. 17 indicate amounts would be just a nuisance and not add much at all to the Winter 2023-24 budget.

Will March help our snow budget?

A winter storm would have to produce heavy snow rates during the day to overcome the higher sun angle (equivalent to September by this point in the season) that contributes to melting on contact. An overnight winter storm has the best chance to produce measurable accumulation.

On average, 2.0 to 3.9 inches of snow accumulates in the D.C. region in March. We would have to exceed snowfall averages in March to come up with a normal winter snow season in the D.C. area.

Even though we haven’t quite succeeded (yet) with an average winter for overall snow accumulation, the successive midwinter storms helped satisfy the average for “snow days.” We have seen eight days so far this winter with 1 inch or more of snow on the ground, which is right on track with the long-term average (through mid-February) of 8.8 days.

Shifting gears from snow to spring, the Cherry Blossom season is just around the corner. Now through late March is the critical period when temperatures will determine when peak bloom occurs. So far, February is 6 degrees warmer than average in Washington. If the overall warm trend continues, peak bloom would be in mid-late March as opposed to early April.

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Even as late as Dec. 12, D.C. was in an abnormally dry spell thanks to a dry fall season.

The District tallied 6.76 inches of rain from Sept. 1 to Nov. 30; a whopping 3.74 inches below average.

That all changed when waterlogged systems pushed December鈥檚 rainfall to 5.08 inches, as of Christmas Day.

Even without the expected 0.50-1.0 inch expected Tuesday into Wednesday, this month ranks as D.C鈥檚 11th wettest December.

The common theme with the most recent wet Decembers in D.C., as seen below, is El Nino.

Just one month ago, the Shenandoah Valley was in a moderate to extreme drought thanks to the dry autumn.

The same turn of events in D.C. has led to drought improvement along I-81. Extreme drought has been erased and moderate to severe drought coverage has decreased by a whopping 19% this month.

Charlottesville, Virginia, had its 13th driest autumn season with 6.04 inches of rain while December will rank in the top 20 for wettest with at least 3.77 inches of rain.

There is no sign of El Nino letting up until late spring, so a strong subtropical jet stream will likely enhance rainfall through the winter months. If the perfect recipe of moisture and cold come together, then D.C. could get a big snow, but based on trends, that won鈥檛 happen until late January or February. So stay tuned.

Get the latest weather news from 91欧美激情.

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Weather records dating back to the 1960s show Washington has a statistically more significant chance at a White Christmas when we are not in either a La Nina or El Nino pattern.

Three winters were considered “neutral,” which means not El Nino or La Nina, and brought the D.C. region a White Christmas. They include Dec. 25 of 1960, 1962 and 1963.

We did win the lottery with two El Nino winters (highlighted in the table below) that produced a White Christmas: 1966 and 2009. One rare La Nina winter brought a White Christmas to Washington on Dec. 25, 1989.

What about this year?

We’re getting into a chilly pattern early this week but it’s fleeting.

A very strong Pacific jet stream, indicative of a strong El Nino, which is dominating our winter pattern, will bring an onslaught of Pacific storms starting late this week.

Unfortunately, for snow lovers, this means Washington will be on the warmer side with any precipitation just before and after Christmas being all rain.

There are weak signals that upstream northern Pacific ridging will send a cold snap into Washington after the holiday season (early 2024) and if the right pattern sets up, a dash of snow is possible. Stay tuned.

In the meantime, kids hoping to wake up to 1 inch of fresh snow on Christmas morning will have to keep dreaming of a White Christmas.

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Notice a crunch when you walk in the grass or how often you’ve had to water your flowers or garden this spring? You’re not imagining anything; this is one of the driest years on record so far.

The D.C. area has only tallied 10.22 inches of precipitation (mostly rain) this year through May 31 鈥� enough to qualify as the fifth-driest year on record through the first five months.

The transition out of La Ni帽a to El Ni帽o 鈥� two opposing climate patterns 鈥� could be to blame. Equatorial Pacific waters are rapidly warming and El Ni帽o is on the fence of returning. Three of the top five driest years through May 31, including 1969, 1977 and 1986 saw a transition to El Ni帽o.

Other records recently established in D.C. include the ninth-driest May on record with 1.34 inches of rain and the 13th-driest spring on record with 6.49 inches of rain.

The D.C. region has been experiencing moderate drought conditions on-and-off since mid-April. Much of D.C.’s rainfall comes from thunderstorms, which have been absent.

If anyone has noticed, the severe weather season has been slow to evolve across the region. Stats do not lie as our office did not issue a single Severe Thunderstorm Warning in May (last May this occurred was 1987).

鈥� NWS Baltimore-Washington (@NWS_BaltWash)

The National Weather Service in Sterling, Virginia, reported no Severe Thunderstorm Warnings issued in May by its office, which serves the entire 91欧美激情 listening area.

The last time not a single Severe Thunderstorm Warning was issued from the Sterling office in May was in 1987, also an El Ni帽o year.

After a cool start Friday morning, temperatures are into the 90s in the D.C. area 鈥� making it the hottest day so far this year. Overnight will be partly cloudy and a little bit more muggy with lows in the 60s, according to 7news First Alert Meteorologist Brian van de Graaff.

That is expected to be followed by a chance for a few showers and rumbles of thunder Saturday afternoon, even though it’ll be partly sunny. Temperatures will be in the low to mid-80s, van de Graff said.

With a cooler weather pattern due next week, there is no strong evidence to suggest rainfall will be near to above average this month. The best chance for a wet June is the Mountain West, which does not bode well for the beginning of the agriculture season in and around the nation’s capital.

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D.C.-area residents suffering from severe allergies will finally get a break from the prolonged dry, warm weather, but the damage has already been done this month. Not to be outdone, the lack of rain will also go down in the record books.

The pollen count has been relentlessly high thanks to the dry, hot weather this April.

The numbers prove it; this month has been the warmest April on record with an average temperature of 63.7 degrees. The second warmest was just six years ago in 2017 with an average temperature of 63 degrees.

Besides the heat, moderate drought has spread across the D.C. region this month. Prior to Saturday鈥檚 rain, this month has been the tenth driest April on record with 0.83 inch of rain.

April averages 3.21 inches of rain.

D.C. isn鈥檛 alone in the drought. It stretches up Interstate 95 into southern New England. This recent dry stretch has also triggered brush fires.

More than 10,000 acres of real estate in the Northeast have been charred by brush fires from April 7 to 13. This includes the soldiers鈥� fire in northern Maryland that has burned 321 acres.

The dry weather has taken its toll on the region this year. D.C. is seeing the third driest start to the calendar year since 1941 with 6.16 inches of rain. Only 1977 and 2012 had less precipitation than this year so far.

Saturday afternoon鈥檚 front marked a pattern change that will keep temperatures near to below-average for the remainder of the month. The next threat of rain is at the end of the month with a southern storm.

Fortunately, the Mid-Atlantic has a reduced risk for brush fires in May, per the latest report from the National Interagency Fire Center.

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Reagan National Airport is 4.2 inches below average for rainfall this year, with half of that deficit racking up since the start of meteorological spring on March 1.

For much of the region, the year is off to an abnormally dry start, but as of late last week, southern Prince George鈥檚, Calvert, Charles and St. Mary鈥檚 counties in Maryland were upgraded to moderate drought.

The U.S. Drought Monitor upgraded the southern suburbs to moderate drought due to short-term rainfall deficits reaching 3.5 to 4.6 inches as well as low streamflow and dry soil. As a matter of fact, streams from eastern Pennsylvania, through all of the D.C. area are running lower than average.

As an example, the stage of Seneca Creek at the Dawsonville location is 2.1 feet, and the second-lowest water level recorded at this spot is 1.30 feet on Aug. 1, 1974.

The persistent dry weather will allow the Potomac River at Georgetown to drop to 1.3 feet by April 12. The fifth-lowest water level recorded at this location is negative 2 feet on Sept. 19, 1936 (Yes, it鈥檚 possible for the lowest water level to be below 0 feet).

Moisture available in the top soil is running 2 to 2.5 inches below average.

This dryness, combined with warming temperatures this week and likely increasing winds from a few dry frontal systems that will pass by to our north, will increase the brush fire risk. The elevated fire risk will likely trigger the weather service to issue a Fire Weather Watch and upgrade to a Red Flag Warning.

Brush should not be burned on red flag days, and lighted cigarette butts should be properly discarded. Charcoal should be dunked in water until it鈥檚 cold, and live charcoal should never be thrown onto the ground.

Given the lack of widespread rain from last Thursday鈥檚 frontal system and a dry week ahead, it鈥檚 possible a moderate drought could be expanded into D.C. and west through Northern Virginia during the Drought Monitor鈥檚 next update this Thursday.

The latest trends support occasional rain this weekend into early next week from a southern low pressure teaming up with an approaching cold front, but it likely won鈥檛 be enough to pull the region out of a drought.

April is traditionally the driest month of spring, with an average of 3.21 inches of rain, while May is the third wettest month of the calendar year with 3.94 inches. The last time our southern suburbs were included in a moderate drought was mid October 2019.

The highest drought classification, exceptional drought, only occurred once in the southern suburbs, and that was in late summer 2002.

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First, it was the double-whammy severe weather and gusty, damaging winds last Saturday. Then, a frost had gardeners outside the Capital Beltway covering flowers to prevent cold weather damage followed by record highs at all three of our airports (BWI, Dulles International and Reagan National Airports) on Wednesday.

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However, rain and thunder is expected to come to the area Thursday afternoon.

Sprawling Canadian high pressure will settle into the northern mid-Atlantic on Friday and remain anchored there straight through Easter Sunday. Meanwhile, the front that is expected to move through Thursday evening will stall out in the Carolinas.

While Friday and Saturday will be dry, much cooler and less humid, we won’t have bright blue skies. Instead, a thick cirrus cloud deck will dim or even completely block the sunlight. Along and south of Interstate 64 will be soggy thanks to the stalled front.

By Easter Sunday, the Canadian high pressure will completely win the battle and deep blue skies and bright sunshine will greet Easter egg hunts in the morning.

Highs will be in the 50s and 60s with morning lows in the 40s. However, our northern suburbs, including Frederick, Thurmont and Hagerstown, will be cold enough around daybreak Saturday, Easter Sunday and Monday for frost development. Flowers should be covered to prevent frost damage in nights and early mornings.

The only national travel headaches on Friday will be in the southeast thanks to rain and thunder and the northwest with rain and mountain snow. While the northwest gets a break in the precipitation on Saturday, the southeast will have a second round of rain.

The pattern will break by Sunday and much of the U.S. will see quiet weather, which has been a rare occurrence the last several months.

Stay tuned to 91欧美激情 on the 8’s for the latest 7Alert Weather Center forecast this weekend.

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Thursday will be perfect to see the best color going forward with bright blue skies and light wind. Friday will start a changeable weather pattern with an increasing southwest wind that will knock off a handful of blooms.

The wind will develop ahead of a major weather system likely to trigger destructive storms in the Mississippi Valley and Midwest. Not to be outdone, showers Friday evening will bring down even more blooms.

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The changeable weather day will be on Saturday.

Morning showers will give way to full sunshine and breezy wind. Peak gusts during most of the afternoon will reach 35 to 45 mph. However, a strong front will push across the District between 6 p.m.-10 p.m. with a line of gusty showers reaching 45 to 55 mph. These winds will slowly diminish to 30 to 40 mph Saturday night.

While high wind watches have been posted west of Interstate 81 so far, wind alerts will likely be issued east of the mountains into the DMV later today or Friday.

Gusts this high are likely to not only knock off at least 50% of the blooms, but down small limbs and initiate scattered power outages across the entire D.C. area and suburbs. Not to be outdone, Sunday will be breezy and a bit cooler, so a few more blooms will come down.

Stay with 91欧美激情 for the latest on the forecast and weather service wind alerts that will likely be issued ahead of Saturday鈥檚 wind event with traffic and weather on the 8’s.

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Transition seasons such as fall and spring provide D.C. with an array of weather with temperatures bouncing around, rain, thunderstorms and even snowflakes in the mix. April 1 presents its own challenges for meteorologists.

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While the past six years have been consistent with highs in the 50s and 60s, you don鈥檛 have to look too far back to see highs in the upper 40s in 2004. It can get as hot as 88 degrees like it did in 1978 and as frigid as 15 degrees in 1923.

However, a frosty morning in D.C. is more of the exception than the rule. The last time April Fools’ Day dropped below freezing was 1987.

As a matter of fact, Monday is the average day in which D.C. no longer drops below freezing and the growing season gets underway. The earliest last hard freeze was Feb. 27, 2010, and the latest in the spring season for the hard freeze was Apr. 21, 1956.

March 19 was the last day in which D.C. dropped below freezing, and the upcoming pattern doesn鈥檛 favor a hard freeze through the remainder of March into April. This doesn鈥檛 mean the suburbs won鈥檛 drop below freezing though.

Snow can accumulate on April Fools’ Day, but it has been rare the past few decades. You have to dig back into the record books to Apr. 1, 1954 to see just trace snow amounts. The greatest D.C. snowfall on April Fools鈥� Day was 1924 with 5.5 inches.

Mother Nature has tricks up her sleeves this year on April 1. A dynamic front has good potential to bring a few showers and breezy to gusty winds, but there鈥檚 no threat for snow or a deep freeze.

Be sure to stay tuned to 91欧美激情 for the latest on the forecast this week with traffic and weather on the 8鈥檚!

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Temperatures will warm into the low 50s on Saturday afternoon but jump up into the 60s during the evening.

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A modest high pressure pushed from central Canada into the Northeast on Friday. This allowed what meteorologists coin a 鈥渂ackdoor cold front鈥� to ease southeast along Interstate 95 in New England into the D.C. region.

It’s called a backdoor front because most fronts approach from the west but this one actually moves south and east.

Notice the temperature trends at Reagan National Airport on Friday.

The highest temperature occurred shortly after midnight and dropped during the day as the front pushed across the region. A traditional temperature curve would see a drop in temperature from midnight to daybreak and then a warming trend during the day followed by a drop off after sunset.

What鈥檚 next? Note the backdoor front has pushed all the way into the Carolinas as of Saturday morning. It will be forced north by a separate cold front moving into the central Appalachians. However, this process will take until around sunset to occur.

So, as is typical when the wedge of clouds and drizzle remains intact behind a backdoor front, temperatures in the D.C. region will remain steady until this front is forced north.

The warmest part of Saturday will occur near or after sunset as a result, but it won鈥檛 make a grand appearance.

Instead, D.C. residents will just notice the drastic change in temperatures on Saturday evening.

Be sure to stay tuned to 91欧美激情 for the latest in our current and expected temperature trends today with the forecast on the 8鈥檚!

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While we notice it more during the growing season, when the grass dries out and lawns turn brown, the numbers show D.C. needs a few rainy days.

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For the first two and a half months of the year, 2023 is the sixth driest start to the calendar year on record in the D.C. area.

Precipitation (melted snow, ice and rainfall) is more than 3 inches behind average. March has only delivered 18% of average rainfall so far.

The primary storm track has been too far north to bring D.C. appreciable rainfall.

As of its latest update on Thursday, March 16, the U.S. Drought Monitor did not officially list D.C. as having an “abnormally dry” spell, which is one level away from “moderate drought.”

However, its update later this week could expand the “abnormally dry” area from southern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and southern Maryland north into the D.C. area.

The recent dry streak has primed the ground for an enhanced risk for brush fires on warm, windy days. Recent 10-hour fuel moisture has dropped to 10% for the Mid-Atlantic. Our next opportunity for an enhanced brush fire risk could be Thursday afternoon due to the breezy and warm weather expected.

Fortunately, the latest trends support occasional rain late this week into next week, which will help make up for some of March鈥檚 loss and keep the region out of a developing drought. Historically, May through July are D.C.’s wettest months of the year, so there is ample opportunity to make up for a dry winter.

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The ‘puffy white’ stage was reached on Saturday. This is the final step before peak bloom, the day in which 70% of the cherry blossoms are open.

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On average, four days pass between聽the ‘puffy white’ stage and peak bloom, which implies Wednesday will be peak bloom this year. But the upcoming weather pattern favors the cherry blossoms blooming later in the week.

Last year provides a similar model in terms of the timing of the ‘puffy white’ stage being reached (it was March 19 in 2022, one day later than this year). Temperatures rebounded to the 60s and 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s after the ‘puffy white’ stage so that peak bloom occurred two days later on March 21.

Last year illustrated the role that weather plays in peak bloom. Mother Nature is setting the stage for the Tidal Basin to once again reap the benefits of this week鈥檚 weather.

However, the chilly early week temperatures will allow for more of a sputtering transition between the two stages.

Morning lows will steadily rebound from the 20s Monday to the 40s later in the week. Meanwhile, highs warm up from the 50s at the start of the week to the 70s by Thursday.

This will allow temperatures to warm 15 degrees above average later this week under generally mostly sunny skies 鈥� except for Wednesday into early Thursday as a warm front passes through the region.

D.C. is likely not going to see peak bloom on Wednesday, but it鈥檚 a sure bet to occur no later than early this weekend thanks to the warmth slated for Thursday. Then, temperatures will drop to several degrees late Friday into Saturday, but overnight lows will stay well-above freezing.

Stay tuned to 91欧美激情 for the announcement on when peak bloom is reached! Stay with 91欧美激情 for the latest weather forecast on the 8鈥檚!

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Since we need a reason to celebrate, find joy in the fact that today we have 12 hours of daylight and darkness in the D.C. area. Yes, the sunrise and sunset are both 7:17 (a.m. and p.m.) on Friday.

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Vernal equinox is a complicated way of saying “first day of spring,” but the “equinox” part refers to equal 12 hours of daylight and darkness.

Since the Earth is not a perfect circle, but rather an oblate spheroid, and light is bent as it comes through the atmosphere, Friday is the day when the region sees 12 hours of daylight and darkness.

On Saturday, we gain three more minutes of daylight, so the sunrise is two minutes earlier (7:15 a.m.) and sunset is one minute later at 7:18 p.m.

This year, Monday is the official day defined as the vernal equinox, which refers to the day and time (5:24 p.m. Eastern) when the sun moves overhead across the equator.

Not everywhere in the U.S. has 12 hours of daylight and darkness Friday. Tucson, Arizona, and San Antonio, Texas, for instance, see 12 hours and two minutes of daylight today.

The 12-hour daylight/darkness benchmark also varies by a day or so. For instance, next year, Washington, D.C., will observe the 鈥渆quinox鈥� of daylight and darkness on March 16.

In an effort to avoid confusion when calculating seasonal averages, meteorologists use the standard March 1 to May 31 time frame for spring, June 1 to Aug. 31 for summer, Sept. 1 to Nov. 30 for autumn averages and Dec. 1 to Feb. 28 (or Feb. 29 for leap years) for winter averages.

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