REYKJAVIK, Iceland (AP) 鈥� When said he wanted a 鈥減iece of ice, cold and poorly located,鈥� the people of had every reason to worry even if he was referring to Greenland.
Their concern was not only that the object of Trump’s desire was their nearest big neighbor, but that he repeatedly .
That gaffe, as Trump continued to earlier this year, could help push the fiercely independent Iceland and its 400,000 people closer to Europe as voters decide Saturday whether to restart talks to join the .
鈥淲e can鈥檛 really trust the U.S. anymore,鈥� said Hildur Kn煤tsd贸ttir, a horror fiction writer who plans to vote in favor of EU membership. 鈥淭rump was not joking about Greenland. There was a lot of fear here in Iceland because if he takes Greenland with force, we鈥檙e probably going to be next.鈥�
Iceland’s decision is whether to continue going it alone successfully and maintain control of precious natural resources like its lucrative and well-managed fisheries, or to strengthen ties with Europe to better insulate the country from and gain economic benefits such as the more stable euro currency and lower interest rates and inflation.
Iceland, which is a member of , already participates in the EU鈥檚 single market through the European Economic Area and is part of the Schengen free-travel zone.
Sovereignty is at the heart of the divide
For both sides of the debate, it’s really a matter of sovereignty, said Hulda Thorisdottir, a political science professor at the University of Iceland.
Opponents argue that the nation that won its independence from in 1944 enjoys all the benefits of European integration with no drawbacks. Why surrender that when they’re doing so well? she said.
鈥淭he independence of Iceland is the most precious resource that we have,” said Haraldur Olafsson, a physics professor who is chairman of Heimss媒n, a Euroskeptic group that opposes EU membership. 鈥淭he possibility of making your own law and deciding how things are done is essential.鈥�
EU proponents, however, see it through the lens of a rapidly changing world in which shifting alliances pose a security risk. Being outside the EU makes Iceland vulnerable and that threatens its sovereignty, Thorisdottir said.
Foreign and Defense Minister Thorgerdur Katr铆n Gunnarsd贸ttir, who supports joining the EU, said when she asks people from smaller countries such as Ireland, Finland or Luxembourg, whether they feel they’ve lost their sovereignty, “they look at me like I鈥檓 a crazy woman鈥� and say membership has made them stronger.
This is not the first time Iceland has considered joining the EU
Prime Minister Kristrun Frostadottir鈥檚 center-left coalition government was elected in 2024 on a platform that called for a vote on EU membership.
Icelanders did not vote on the decision to apply for EU membership in 2009, after the country鈥檚 debt-burdened banking sector collapsed during the 2008 global financial crisis. Accession talks were suspended in 2013 after a center-right government came to power, and they formally ended in 2015.
is a first step to potentially joining the 27-nation bloc. Voters will answer a simple yes-or-no question: Should Iceland resume accession negotiations with the European Union?
If voters reject the proposal, the issue would be put to rest. A yes vote would lead to a yearslong negotiating process with the European Commission assessing 35 sets of criteria from financial systems to fisheries, transport networks, agricultural regulations, and freedoms such as speech and religion.
Any agreement would need to be approved by all current EU member nations and then voters in Iceland would have the final say on whether to join.
The fish factor could be a deal breaker
The descendants of Vikings who settled Iceland have been living off the sea for centuries, and fishing remains part of the country’s cultural identity. They fought the so-called Cod Wars with Britain to win control of their fishing grounds in the 1970s.
Their rich North Atlantic fishing grounds have always been a key sticking point to joining the EU over concerns they would have to join the Common Fisheries Policy that would allow Spanish, Dutch and other trawlers into their waters.
Any deal with the EU that doesn’t protect Iceland’s fishing rights is seen as dead in the water, but Gunnarsd贸ttir and other officials are confident any deal will offer an exemption for Iceland’s fisheries.
鈥淲e are a superpower when it comes to fisheries,鈥� she said. 鈥淲e will not sign any agreement which will not underline our sovereignty and full control of our fisheries.鈥�
Hei冒run Lind Marteinsd贸ttir, the CEO of Fisheries Iceland, said the seafood trade organization doesn’t oppose joining the EU if there is a permanent opt-out from the fisheries policy, but she said that would be unprecedented.
鈥淚 think we need to be very realistic on the negotiation process and what we can get out of the negotiations,” she said. “To be honest, I think, we鈥檙e aiming high.鈥�
Others in the industry are more skeptical that any protection of Icelandic fisheries would be lasting 鈥� especially for open water species like herring, capelin and mackerel that migrate between different fishing zones.
鈥淲e are going to see European fishing vessels here in Iceland,鈥� Einar Sigurdsson, chairman of Isfelag fishing company, predicted.
Trump’s Greenland obsession sped up election timetable
The government had planned to hold the vote by next year but moved it up after Trump鈥檚 repeated overtures about taking over Greenland, a of Denmark, .
The U.S. State Department reassured Iceland officials that Trump meant Greenland during his repeated slip of the tongue at the , Switzerland, Gunnarsd贸ttir, the foreign minister, said.
It didn’t help that William Long, the newly arrived U.S. ambassador in Reykjavik, once joked that Iceland would become the 52nd U.S. state and he’d be its governor. He apologized, but the remark prompted thousands of Icelanders to sign a petition urging the prime minister to reject his appointment.
Gunnarsd贸ttir said Trump’s saber-rattling emphasized the importance of the EU’s collection of small and large nations standing as one with Greenland and Denmark.
鈥淭hat is so important for us to see a group of like-minded nations stand together on principles and values,” she said. 鈥淭hat is also what I鈥檓 looking at when I see the European Union in this volatile world.鈥�
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