Sitting in a 91欧美激情 studio in late September 2016, well before the world witnessed the upheaval that Russian interference in the upcoming U.S. election would unleash, former CIA director Michael Hayden issued a stark and prescient warning.
Describing his view of U.S. threats, Hayden said, 鈥淥ut there 10 to 15 years, and way up on the let’s-get-important-side, is the Sino-American relationship. This is the one that鈥檚 pass-fail. This is the one you’ve got to get right.鈥�
Contrasting the situation with the threat from Russia, which he called a revanchist power, Hayden warned, 鈥淭his is all about an emerging power 鈥� the Chinese 鈥� and a status quo power 鈥斺�攐urselves. History has seen a lot of examples of status quo and emerging powers. It generally ends up in global war.鈥�
That warning was ostensibly ignored.
鈥淭here鈥檚 no question they didn鈥檛 heed the warnings,鈥� said Nick Eftimiades, a retired U.S. intelligence officer and expert on Chinese intelligence operations.
鈥淲e had very active policy debates over the past two decades, but there was a fair amount of arrogance that everyone was accepting of the American way of life; and there was a fair amount of ignorance of what the Chinese Communist Party was actually all about,鈥� Eftimiades said.
As a result, war-footing is precisely where the U.S. and China stand 鈥� not kinetic but information warfare, which experts say can be just as deadly.
Bullets and bombs are not a part of the equation at the moment. But there is far more to the confrontation between the two nations than just frosty stares on television, sanctions, consulate closures and salvos of stinging rhetoric designed to malign each other.
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鈥淯nprecedented鈥� is how numerous national security officials describe the threat from Beijing in 2020.
鈥淚t鈥檚 beyond imagination鈥�, said Doug Wise, former deputy director of the Defense Intelligence Agency.
Wise said it鈥檚 not just the massive scale of China鈥檚 spying apparatus, but its intense focus across numerous disciplines. Whether it鈥檚 鈥渉uman intelligence, signals intelligence or cybercrime, the intensity is beyond our ability to comprehend,鈥� Wise said.
A snapshot of those capabilities and Beijing鈥檚 intentions were recently exposed by the National Counterintelligence and Security Center, or NCSC.
鈥淲e assess that China prefers that President Trump 鈥� whom Beijing sees as unpredictable 鈥� does not win reelection,鈥� William Evanina, director of NCSC, said.
To that end, Evanina suggested, 鈥淐hina has been expanding its influence efforts ahead of November 2020 to shape the policy environment in the United States, pressure political figures it views as opposed to China鈥檚 interests, and deflect and counter criticism of China.鈥�
The problem U.S. is wrestling with is detecting how Beijing is launching its attacks.
Exposing Beijing鈥檚 tactics
There is an adage in Western intelligence circles: “Mandarin is the first level of encryption.”
That saying, according to former Navy Seal Mike Janke, co-founder of Silent Circle, which built the super-secure Blackphone, is 鈥渙ne of the reasons the Chinese are able to get away with stuff they do in the West.鈥�
Janke said a key part of Beijing鈥檚 success in targeting the West is its firewall within China. But another simple but effective weapon is, 鈥淢andarin, because it is not spoken in the West and our computers don’t correlate it correctly.鈥�
U.S. government officials said Beijing uses every possible resource at its disposal, including the language difficulty, to pursue its agenda.
Janke noted that Chinese intelligence runs secret spy scholarship programs that train Chinese nationals, change their names and send them to the U.S. to infiltrate American companies and organizations.
It is among the most risky but successful tactics Beijing employs.
But another, often overlooked, weapon is China鈥檚 consulates. The State Department forced Beijing to close its Houston consulate in July, because it is believed to have been directing efforts to steal intellectual property and support a network of undercover intelligence and military officers operating in 25 cities.
Some of their activities included hunting down political rivals of China鈥檚 President Xi Jinping, Communist Party critics, and hunting down refugees and forcing them to return to China.
The Chinese government also uses cold, hard cash to get its way in the U.S.
In January, Dr. Charles Lieber, the chair of Harvard University鈥檚 chemistry and chemical biology department, was indicted after it was discovered that he had, unbeknown to the university, been paid more than $1.5 million to be a 鈥渟trategic scientist鈥� at the Wuhan University of Technology in China.
Media also figures prominently, as Beijing tries to sway the political process. Evanina suggested in his statement that the Chinese government is eager stop the U.S. government鈥檚 pressure.
鈥淎lthough China will continue to weigh the risks and benefits of aggressive action, its public rhetoric over the past few months has grown increasingly critical of the current administration鈥檚 COVID-19 response, closure of China鈥檚 Houston consulate, and actions on other issues,鈥� Evanina said.
Beijing has harshly criticized the administration鈥檚 statements and actions on Hong Kong, TikTok, the legal status of the South China Sea and China鈥檚 efforts to dominate the 5G market.
What now?
Former Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats recently wrote titled “There鈥檚 no Cold War with China 鈥� and if there were, we couldn鈥檛 win.鈥�
Coats, a senior adviser at the law firm King & Spalding LLP, said bluntly that the U.S. shouldn鈥檛 assume that a Cold War with China would follow the same format of the 34-year affair the U.S. had with the Soviet Union, which was, according to Coats, “a military and cultural contest.”
Furthermore, he said, 鈥淭he Soviet Union was not our major trading partner, was not a major holder of our debt and was not tightly interconnected in the supply chains critical to our (and the world鈥檚) economy.”
Simply put, Coats said America鈥檚 problem is we don鈥檛 have a coherent strategy when it comes to China; but China, on the other hand, is “clearly pursuing (its) foreign policy goals according to a carefully calculated long-term strategy.鈥�
Other countries have already recognized this and are making key adjustments.
Eeva Eek-Pajuste, the director of Estonia鈥檚 Lennart Meri Conference that is part of the International Centre for Defence and Security, began warning the West in 2018 to take a more proactive posture with Beijing.
鈥淓urope needs to quickly educate an amount of good-level China specialists, not just Sinologists, who speak the language and love the culture, but the specialists, who are able to orientate in China’s mindset and policy culture,” Eek-Pajuste said.
In failing to do so, 鈥淲e shall lose this game,” Eek-Pajuste said.
How long this game lasts, according to Eftimiades, is uncertain.
鈥淐hina plays a long game. Were the elections to turn out in their favor, with a new president, they鈥檒l work very aggressively to get back on track,鈥� Eftimiades said.
But if Trump wins and the posture between the two countries remains the same, the prospect of a real war remains a possibility.
Hayden said Wednesday, 鈥淚鈥檓 not sure if a war will happen,” but almost four years after his 2016 warning he said, 鈥淚t鈥檚 not going well at all. It鈥檚 bad for a lot of reasons, which are both the fault of the U.S. and China.鈥�
