NEW YORK (AP) 鈥� Nearing the six-month mark of the Iran war and facing , the Trump administration is touting against Tehran, promising an 鈥渆conomic D-Day鈥� against a country that has so far withstood nearly five decades of punishing American sanctions.
With sparse details, President Donald Trump announced this week that the U.S. would be imposing an 鈥渦nprecedented鈥� level of economic warfare and isolation on Iran, aiming to to cave to demands to end its nuclear program and fully reopen the crucial to oil and natural gas tankers.
It reflects the dire reality Trump faces with an he just months before pivotal midterm elections that will decide whether his Republican Party keeps control of Congress. Whether out of desperation or strategy, the president is refocusing America’s might on bringing Iran to its knees through an accelerated sanctions campaign against one of in the world.
The immediate response from Iran hawks has been praise and a call for patience as it plays out, while other analysts warn that Trump is refusing to learn the lessons of his predecessors.
In an interview Thursday on CNBC, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent offered a small glimpse of what may be ahead, threatening secondary sanctions on nations and companies that conduct business with Iran.
He did not say exactly whom would be targeted as part of this next phase of the administration鈥檚 鈥� 鈥� which earlier had focused on entities and individuals that buy oil from or bank with Iran. China and India, however, are major buyers of Iranian oil.
鈥淚f you insist on doing business with them, then the U.S. Treasury and U.S. government will put its full might and force against you,鈥� Bessent said. 鈥淚t鈥檚 time for our allies and the rest of the world to make a decision.”
Some experts see 鈥榰ncharted waters鈥� that could force Iran’s hand
Despite decades of U.S. sanctions against Iran, the Trump administration is arguing that it鈥檚 only a matter of time and that striking the right economic target would get Tehran to its breaking point.
Richard Goldberg, who coordinated efforts to put diplomatic pressure on Iran in Trump’s first term, said the consequences of U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites last year, the war this year and the American naval blockade on Iranian ports have created the perfect storm for capitulation 鈥� one that didn’t previously exist.
鈥淚 think we鈥檙e watching a strategy, whether it takes a short time or a long time, that is very much about fundamentally changing the future of the world by seeing the end of this regime,” said Goldberg, who is now at the hawkish Washington think tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
鈥淚 caution everyone 鈥� including myself, who has worked on sanctions, who鈥檚 worked on financial warfare 鈥� to have the humility to admit that we are in uncharted waters,鈥� he said.
He said the decision this week by the United Arab Emirates 鈥� once one of Tehran’s most important trading partners 鈥� to over an alleged missile attack will only further isolate the government.
Beyond trade in domestically produced goods, the Emiratis had helped the country absorb some of the shocks caused by sanctions through its re-export hub.
Targeting allies and partners comes at a price
With nearly all of Iran’s energy, financial and transportation sectors already covered by U.S. sanctions, Trump鈥檚 aim appears to be to apply secondary sanctions on countries, including allies and partners, that have not cut all ties with Iran to starve the country of any remaining income it may still be receiving.
In many ways, it is a redux of Trump鈥檚 first-term 鈥渕aximum pressure鈥� campaign, which he has ramped up during his second term to include military action.
But as Trump and his allies discovered during his first administration, it can be difficult to enforce secondary sanctions without harming U.S. interests and provoking reciprocal measures. There were numerous instances of the administration granting sanctions waivers to countries, particularly those that rely on Iranian oil for their energy needs.
鈥淭rump鈥檚 strategy now rests on targeting Tehran directly by impeding its touch points and access to the formal financial system and international economy,鈥� said Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director of FDD鈥檚 Iran program. 鈥淭his will require making the Iran issue more important in U.S. bilateral relations with countries in Europe and Asia.鈥�
Iran doesn’t see an 鈥榦pen door鈥� at the end of the sanctions campaign
Iranian officials and analysts have accused the Republican president of flip-flopping with his latest pivot to economic pressure against Iran. Trump has long derided past leaders who used sanctions to limit Iran鈥檚 ability to pay for its military and nuclear development.
In a post last week on X, Esmail Baghaei, spokesman for Iran鈥檚 Foreign Ministry, wrote that Washington’s pattern of retreating to sanctions when it doesn’t want to pursue diplomacy has proven to be futile.
鈥淚ran has demonstrated over decades that it will not be strangled by these exhausted refrains,鈥� he said. 鈥淭he real risk is that American politicians, clinging to this bad habit, will instead strangle their own remaining chances of a less humiliating exit from a crisis of their own making.鈥�
Ali Vaez, Iran director at the International Crisis Group, said the Trump administration’s decision to take its own 鈥渕aximum pressure鈥� policy to new heights with military action seems to ignore years of U.S. foreign policy lessons that show Iran does not respond well to pressure.
If anything, he says, the latest economic campaign has only 鈥渉ardened Iran’s position.鈥�
鈥淚 think (Trump’s) blind spot is the fact that the only thing that the Iranian regime views as more dangerous than suffering from U.S. sanctions is surrendering to U.S. terms,” Vaez said.
Plus, the past year of start-stop diplomacy has only worsened the already fragile dynamic between the longtime adversaries, Vaez says, adding that Iranian officials’ lack of trust in Trump and his mediators has created an untenable foundation.
鈥淭hey believe that even if they capitulate to U.S. terms under economic duress, Trump would move the goalposts and ask for more,鈥� he said. 鈥淎nd this is really the fundamental problem: Pressure without an open door is an exercise in futility.鈥�
___
Associated Press writers Matthew Lee and Fatima Hussein in Washington contributed to this report.
Copyright © 2026 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, written or redistributed.
